This market will resolve yes if a manned aircraft of any type is shot down in relation to the conflict in the Middle East before 31st December 2023.
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Resolves yes based on:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_shootdowns
and my confirmation with the market creator that a couple days before market creation still counts (likely based on the "'in relation to the conflict in the Middle East..." in the desc).
@RobertCousineau I think this predates the market's creation though (and was probably the event that inspired it), so unclear if it counts
@RobertCousineau Wait what? Obviously not your fault but this is definitely not the interpretation I had when betting. I even checked the wiki page and verified nothing had happened after market creation.
@DanMan314 I hear ya - it's an ongoing issue with lightly specified markets. I got my hunch to message because I read in the description "in relation to the ongoing conflict" and wasn't sure if this would end up being more the bounty type market (e.g. 'if my prior research was bad and I didn't see something happen that still counts') or a strict "must happen after X date type market".
@RobertCousineau Very sorry I didn't see the article you had sent me happened before the market was created, obviously wouldn't have made much sense to create the market in that case.
@lyfeaquatic You know you can just say that this was implictly referring to things that will happen in the future (the "will" in the title reflects that). I had this situation happen to me several time in my markets, so much that it is now clarified in my profile.
@Ramble and @YotamFederman I did not mean to pump and dump you - if you'd like DM me and I am happy to manalink you your losses.
@Ramble I'm sorry, my fault. I didn't read the link properly. I also just read the article referenced in the list you linked, it looks like the aircraft was destroyed on the ground but either way I am sorry.
@RobertCousineau It's not your fault. My only wish is that markets should be closed while this kind of discussion is happening. Also @lyfeaquatic don't feel too bad. These things sometimes happen on Manifold.
@Shump Second this - better if market is closed during discussion, but this kind of thing does happen.
and @RobertCousineau I'm happy to help repay with the resetting of this market. Let me know if your paybacks outstrip the profit you made on pump/dump and I'll fill in.
@Ramble sent you 500 mana to reimburse losses and @YotamFederman sent 200 mana for the same.
@DanMan314 I consider it a personal benefit if I get a good excuse to have a bit less mana - I spend too much time on this site :P I appreciate the thought though!
@lyfeaquatic the news of the helicopter coming down was at basically the same time as you asked the question, so it's not surprising you didn't see it (and hence my original interpretation of the question as "will this happen again"). But whether it happens on the ground is irrelevant since it was forced to land, per your comments to Yotam below, right? (Which I also assume was inspired by the actual event.) @RobertCousineau I'm not liquidity constrained and you didn't do anything wrong, but you can donate a few 100M to charity if you feel like it.
@Ramble lol that was a pure coincidence - I heard about the Yas'ur incident, but unrelated to my comment, and didn't even remember I had a position on this market. And I didn't change my NO position after @lyfeaquatic 's answer to my comment below 😅
@YotamFederman yes - shoot down: 'to destroy an aircraft or make an aircraft fall to the ground by shooting at it.'
There is some room for ambiguity but in this example I will resolve yes if I believe the aircraft has been 'forced' to land by the strike