Will Deepseek V4 outperform OpenAI and Anthropic models at coding?
10
100Ṁ199Dec 31
17%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Claim: https://x.com/petergostev/status/2009616928763981963
Will Deepseek V4 outperform OpenAI's and Anthropic's strongest contemporary models at the time of its release?
Relevant coding benchmarks:
SWE-bench Verified
HumanEval
TerminalBench
RE-Bench
LiveCodeBench
Deepseek V4 must score higher than both OpenAI's and Anthropic's strongest latest released models on 3/5 of these benchmarks (official or independent benchmark results) to resolve YES. If V4 matches or underperforms either of its competitors on more than half of those benchmarks, it resolves NO. If a certain benchmark is not reported within 1 month of release, that benchmark counts as a loss for Deepseek V4.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
When will Deepseek V4 be released?
2/7/26
DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?
68% chance
V4 (DeepSeek) release date
Will DeepSeek R2 be open source?
95% chance
will deepseek-v4 destroy all other models?
14% chance
Will mHC be used in DeepSeek V4?
75% chance
Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be open-sourced?
93% chance
Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?
1% chance
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
28% chance
Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?
25% chance