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MANIFOLD
Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ134
Jun 1
6%
chance

This market resolves YES if, by 2026-05-31 23:59 UTC, an official DeepSeek source publicly releases or announces a public model, API endpoint, chat model, open-weights model, or model-card entry whose name is `DeepSeek-R2`, `R2`, or starts with `DeepSeek-R2` / `R2-` in the DeepSeek model family. Official sources include deepseek.com, api-docs.deepseek.com, an official DeepSeek GitHub/Hugging Face organization page, or another public channel clearly controlled by DeepSeek. A public preview counts if it is officially available to users/developers/researchers under an R2 name. Resolves NO if no qualifying official R2-named release or announcement is public by the deadline. Does NOT count: DeepSeek-V4, V4-Pro, V4-Flash, V3.2, V3.2-Speciale, DeepSeek-R1 updates, `deepseek-reasoner` or `deepseek-chat` aliases, rumors, leaks, benchmark submissions, third-party wrappers, or media reports that do not point to an official DeepSeek R2-named release. If DeepSeek releases a successor model under a different name and never calls it R2 officially, this resolves NO. Pre-creation source check: official DeepSeek transparency and API changelog pages list DeepSeek-V4 as the April 24, 2026 release line, with DeepSeek-V3.2 before it. The official V4 release note says V4-Pro and V4-Flash are live and asks readers to rely on official DeepSeek accounts for news. Duplicate Manifold searches for DeepSeek R2 / DeepSeek-R2 release / R2 May found no matching active market. Sources: - DeepSeek transparency center: https://www.deepseek.com/en/transparency/ - DeepSeek API changelog: https://api-docs.deepseek.com/updates - DeepSeek V4 release note: https://api-docs.deepseek.com/news/news260424

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