I've been an avid LessWrong reader and HPMOR fan since cca. 1,5 years.
Also possibly relevantly, I (easily) got to stage 2 of ESPR but didn't do most of the stage 2 tasks as there was a long-planned family vacation at the time of ESPR (I wasn't motivated enough to finish most tasks just for fun - a possible indication of not being a promising WARP applicant).
I became a Non-trivial fellow 8 months ago (not much to do with rationality, but according to someone on Discord, it's a 3/5 prestige EA program as opposed to the 5/5 Atlas fellowship). I'm fairly good and math, probably better at calculus, probability theory and combinatorics than the average teenager (likely not unique among the applicants).
I expect the probability of my acceptance to be roughly equivalent to the overall acceptance rate, or maybe slightly higher.
Resolves Yes if I get accepted and attend WARP, resolves No otherwise.
1,000
3.00The decision should come out tomorrow (incidentally the same date I set the market to close 3 months ago). My no shares are mainly insurance.
@logaems I went on lots of tangents due to excessive caffeine consumption before the call and behaved extremely chaotically.
@logaems And weirdly, the points we talked about didn't seem very relevant to the topics of rat camps.
@logaems Like I spent several minutes just explaining what libertarian socialism is, even though the way I mentioned it in my app was just an intellectual stepping stone I had in the past
@logaems The questions were so vague and I spent most of the time solving the puzzle by trying to interpret what it meant (the ESPR 2023 stage one puzzle was much more straightforward/easy)