Will Theresa May lose her seat at the next general election?

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resolved Jul 5

Resolved

N/A

ALL

Resolves to YES if at the next UK general election, Theresa May fails to be elected to the House of Commons (regardless of which constituency she stands in; she is currently the MP for Maidenhead). It doesn't matter whether or not she stands as a Conservative. This market resolves to N/A if she is not a candidate in the next general election.

Inspired by this tweet by Sam Freedman: https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1655165111550476288

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@mods Resolves N/A

Good markets, and interesting tweet. Name recognition counts for a lot though. And people often use local elections as a protest vote and then vote for their honest preference in the general.

I've bet NO on all of these. I expect to be wrong about ~1 of them

@Fion Raab seems the most likely to lose; the Lib Dems came quite close in 2019.

predictedNO

@lisamarsh good point. He's also had more negative press than most of them

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