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Will the Liberal Democrats be the third-largest party at the next UK general election (third-largest number of seats)?
89
Ṁ1kṀ36k
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
YES

At the 2019 general election, the Liberal Democrats won 11 seats, coming fourth behind the Conservatives (on 365 seats), Labour (202), and the SNP (48). This market resolves to YES if the party comes third at the next general election (in terms of seats, not votes). Candidates elected as Liberal Democrats still count if they have been suspended from the party (like Neale Hanvey in 2019). If there is a tie for third place, the market will resolve to PROB (if two parties are tied for third, this resolves to 50%, if three are tied for third, this resolves to 33%, and so on).

UK Politics
UK General Election 2024
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YouGov MRP poll says that worst Conservative performance will be lower that best Liberal Democrat performance

bought Ṁ10 NO

And it is a reasonable assumption that those performances will have a significant amount of overlap as I can't see Green/Reform get double digit seats and only Lib Dem can beat Tories in some of the usual Tory safe seats.

It would be really funny if the Tories implode so hard that LD end up being second. And then I "win" this market despite being even more wrong than everybody else. 😂

I'd say "third largest number of seats" as the title.

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