Will Dominic Raab lose his seat at the next general election? | Manifold

Will Dominic Raab lose his seat at the next general election?

7

40

Ṁ396

Ṁ150

2025

91%

chance

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1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to YES if at the next UK general election, Dominic Raab fails to be elected to the House of Commons (regardless of which constituency he stands in; he is currently the MP for Esher and Walton). It doesn't matter whether or not he stands as a Conservative. This market resolves to N/A if he is not a candidate in the next general election.

Inspired by this tweet by Sam Freedman: https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1655165111550476288

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Raab has said he isn’t standing for re-election, so this will probably resolve N/A (but I’ll wait until the actual election in case he changes his mind): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/22/dominic-raab-quits-politics-family-pressure-resignation/

bought Ṁ250 of YES

@lisamarsh This should resolve YES in that case!

@Nico It says “This market resolves to N/A if he is not a candidate in the next general election.” in the description

predicts YES

@lisamarsh always read the small print

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