Will at least 10 Conservative MPs publicly call for Rishi Sunak to resign in 2023 (conditional on no general election taking place)?
22
105
370
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Resolves to YES if at least 10 Conservative Members of Parliament (in the UK) publicly call for Rishi Sunak to resign as leader of the Conservative Party and/or as Prime Minister in 2023. This must be a call for an immediate or fairly immediate resignation; saying that they do not want Sunak to fight the next general election does not count.

Submitting a letter of no confidence in Sunak (and announcing this publicly) counts, unless the MP explicitly says that they support Sunak staying in power and are submitting a letter for some other reason (e.g. so that Sunak wins a vote of no confidence to strengthen his position).

Voting against the government in a parliamentary vote of no confidence would also count (unless there are some sort of special circumstances).

The 10 Conservative MPs do not need to do this at the same time, and this can still resolve to YES if some of them change their minds; all that is needed is for 10 different individuals to all have called for Sunak to resign.

If a general election takes place in 2023 before 10 MPs have called for Sunak to resign, this will resolve to N/A (because if Sunak lost an election, this would be almost certain to occur).

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ92
2Ṁ88
3Ṁ51
4Ṁ35
5Ṁ30
Sort by:

Is the close date on this wrong? I’d expect EOY 2023 or start of 2024.

@Noit Fixed, thanks!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1769005/rishi-sunak-no-confidence-letters-1922-committee-brexit

Potential to start the process but I’m buying No until someone publicly states they’ve sent a letter in.

sold Ṁ54 of NO

How does this resolve if there is a confidence vote in parliament, called by somebody from another party, in which 10 conservative MPs vote against Sunak?

@Fion I would resolve YES unless there are some sort of special circumstances.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

NI deal seems to have gone down pretty well, which was probably the biggest risk to Sunak.

And any challenger would probably rather wait, let Sunak lose the election, and then challenge, rather than take over, lose the election, and then end up resigning themselves.