MANIFOLD
How many people will win at least one state in the 2024 Republican primaries?
10
Ṁ1kṀ2.9k
resolved May 13
100%98%
2
0.2%
1
0.3%
3
0.4%
4
0.6%
5
0.6%
6 or more

Resolves to the number of candidates who win any state in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries. "Winning" is based on delegate count, then number of votes (so only one candidate can win each state). Caucuses count as well as primaries (so e.g. winning Iowa would count), but the victory must be in a state, not a territory (even though places like Washington D.C. hold primaries as well).

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