Will anyone other than Trump or DeSantis win a state in the 2024 Republican primaries?
➕
Plus
112
Ṁ34k
resolved Mar 6
Resolved
YES

Resolves to YES if any candidate other than former president Donald Trump or Florida governor Ron DeSantis wins any state in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries. "Winning" is based on delegate count, then number of votes (so only one candidate can win each state). Caucuses count as well as primaries (so e.g. winning Iowa would count), but the victory must be in a state, not a territory (even though places like Washington D.C. hold primaries as well).

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ22 YES

@lisamarsh +1 on request to resolve this. Thanks!

@lisamarsh resolves Yes

@lisamarsh can you please push out the resolution time for this? Last day of the primaries is June 4th. Thanks!

Why is this so high?

Nikki Haley is almost certain to win the Nevada primary, which has the following candidates:

Nevada notably has both a primary and a caucus and Trump, DeSantis, Vivek, Christie are only in the caucus, while Haley is only in the primary.

predictedNO

@mattyb Description says delegates need to be awarded to “win.” No delegates will be awarded based on the primary results https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/NV-R#0319

predictedYES

@MarkHamill 😭. Defeated by reading again. My mortal enemy

predictedNO

@mattyb Haley probably made the same mistake lol

predictedYES

@MarkHamill nothing gets past a Jedi

The cover image is pretty fun. California and Michigan have both been split in two.

Regardless of what else happens, I think there's a >50% chance Hailey wins SC.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules