Will my [21%,70%] market have more than 200k total volume by time of closing?
27
530Ṁ4892
resolved Jan 14
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-this-market-be-in-the-interval

Resolves Yes if the linked market has more than 200 thousand mana volume after it has closed.

Close date updated to 2023-01-12 8:00 pm

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predictedNO

Let me get my 2 cents

predictedNO

Bro

predictedYES

I was going to do the volume pumping thing, but then I got distracted by some important IRL stuff... sigh.

predictedNO

@VitorBosshard Thank you! 😀

predictedNO

The only market where I won something isn't getting solved 😭

predictedNO

At least this worked out

Damn once again I misclicked a tab and bet on the wrong market and didn’t notice prices seemed odd.

I just tested that repeatedly buying and selling pumps volume, so it's kind of a meaningless metric.

predictedNO

@VitorBosshard Yes, true, except that the limit orders and the bots who immediately buy against you makes repeated trading at any volume far from costless.

The current volume seems to be 50k, I find it unlikely that the volume can go 4x anytime soon.

@Hei I have worries heavy hitters could still have plans to pump volume right before the end. (I don’t think saying that aloud makes this scenario much more likely than it was before.)

predictedNO

@degtorad You're right, it's possible but unlikely in my calculation. I'm already out of the market so I could explain my reasoning here in public without it affecting me... but what I say might really affect the other market and anyone who's invested in it. Would you like me to explain it or not? I'm ok either way

predictedNO

@Hei No, it’d be good if you wait.

@Hei The time has come 😁 of course if you’re still up.

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