Will my [21%,70%] market have more than 200k total volume by time of closing?
27
419
530
resolved Jan 14
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-this-market-be-in-the-interval

Resolves Yes if the linked market has more than 200 thousand mana volume after it has closed.

Close date updated to 2023-01-12 8:00 pm

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predicted NO

Let me get my 2 cents

predicted NO

Bro

predicted YES

I was going to do the volume pumping thing, but then I got distracted by some important IRL stuff... sigh.

predicted NO

@VitorBosshard Thank you! 😀

predicted NO

The only market where I won something isn't getting solved 😭

predicted NO
bought Ṁ50 of NO

At least this worked out

bought Ṁ60 of YES

Damn once again I misclicked a tab and bet on the wrong market and didn’t notice prices seemed odd.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I just tested that repeatedly buying and selling pumps volume, so it's kind of a meaningless metric.

predicted NO

@VitorBosshard Yes, true, except that the limit orders and the bots who immediately buy against you makes repeated trading at any volume far from costless.

The current volume seems to be 50k, I find it unlikely that the volume can go 4x anytime soon.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Hei I have worries heavy hitters could still have plans to pump volume right before the end. (I don’t think saying that aloud makes this scenario much more likely than it was before.)

predicted NO

@degtorad You're right, it's possible but unlikely in my calculation. I'm already out of the market so I could explain my reasoning here in public without it affecting me... but what I say might really affect the other market and anyone who's invested in it. Would you like me to explain it or not? I'm ok either way

predicted NO

@Hei No, it’d be good if you wait.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@Hei The time has come 😁 of course if you’re still up.