This market resolves YES if there are 100+ unique traders by time of closing March 1st.
171
259
2K
resolved Mar 2
Resolved
YES

100+ means 100 or more.

Resolves NO if there are 99 or less unique traders.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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predicted YES

@levifinkelstein Why has this market not resolved yet? Unique traders cannot go down

sold Ṁ14 of YES

@Conflux yes, correct

Sorry for the very late enforcement! Unfortunately, these types of markets don't add much to our community so I've unlisted it as per our guidelines on self-referential markets: https://help.manifold.markets/community-guidelines

predicted NO

@ian I see. Personally I think that even though these markets seem cheap on the surface I think they've helped me internalize many game theory and psychology ideas. Predicting the behavior of adversarial agents 🤖 that change in response to your predictions can be quite non-trivial and is often as interesting as predicting other types of events like the weather. ⛈

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I'm trader #100!

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@MartyDettmann @levifinkelstein since the resolution criteria has been met, would you resolve this early?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Will this resolve early if there are 100+ traders before March 1st? I'm suspicious of "by time of closing" versus "at time of closing" phrases.

predicted YES

@KCS As far as I am aware, the number of unique traders can only go up not down.

sold Ṁ10 of YES

@ZZZZZZ Ah I think you're right, if "unique traders" is what's shown in the market details as "Traders". There was a big controversy around this a few weeks ago, right? I think someone resolved based on "Users", which can go down.

predicted YES

@KCS It's based on the unqiue trader number which can only go up

predicted NO

@ZZZZZZ buy more YES then

predicted YES

@levifinkelstein resolve it

predicted YES

@levifinkelstein you can get higher guaranteed returns betting on permanent stocks so there's no point in buying something to wait a month from my perspective

predicted YES

@levifinkelstein it seems Manifold has removed the ability to see the number of unique traders on a market which you used to be able to do by going to your Markets list and sorting by popular

predicted YES

@levifinkelstein ok, I can confirm you can still see it by going to the Traders number on the market. Though, that number used to be Users and show only the number of people holding stock in the market.

predicted YES

@ZZZZZZ The 'Market details' pane (three dots) has always shown total unique traders (including those who no longer hold shares). The Traders tab used only to show the number of shareholders, and now show the number of total unique traders.

ISWYDT

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@degtorad what does this mean?

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@levifinkelstein “I see what you did there” 🙂

predicted YES

@degtorad what did I do?

predicted NO

@levifinkelstein Hmm, now that I thought more, I think I miscalculated that it automatically would give you ~100 unique participant mana bonuses. Some reverse inference happened.

predicted YES

@degtorad haha, like I could ask a question then resolve it YES and suddenly I'm god emperor of universe?

predicted NO

@levifinkelstein Something like that, though that was a fruit of undifferentiated thought so there can’t really be any similarities with defined wordy stuff. I think that’s akin to semantic hallucinations encountered in droves when dreaming.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

If someone moves this market a lot, it will be featured on the front page algorithmically.

predicted YES

@VitorBosshard I think it might be taboo to engage in manipulation like this

predicted YES

@levifinkelstein Why do you think this? What if I bet on a market that we'll have AGI in 2030 and then dedicated myself to build one? It's not insider trading, collusion, fake users, or anything like that (I understand why people often are against all of these). I'm just creating the world I want to live in ;)