This market resolves YES if there are 100+ unique traders by time of closing March 1st.

levi finkelstein

closes Mar 1

Meta-Forecasting

96%

chance

ALL

100+ means 100 or more.

Resolves NO if there are 99 or less unique traders.

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Jonathan Ray

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-this-market-close-below-45

KCSbought Ṁ10 of YES

Will this resolve early if there are 100+ traders before March 1st? I'm suspicious of "by time of closing" versus "at time of closing" phrases.

ZZZ ZZZis predicting YES at 71%

@KCS As far as I am aware, the number of unique traders can only go up not down.

KCSsold Ṁ10 of YES

@ZZZZZZ Ah I think you're right, if "unique traders" is what's shown in the market details as "Traders". There was a big controversy around this a few weeks ago, right? I think someone resolved based on "Users", which can go down.

levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 73%

@KCS It's based on the unqiue trader number which can only go up

degtorad

ISWYDT

levi finkelsteinbought Ṁ50 of YES

@degtorad what does this mean?

degtoradbought Ṁ15 of NO

@levifinkelstein “I see what you did there” 🙂

levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 50%

@degtorad what did I do?

degtoradis predicting NO at 50%

@levifinkelstein Hmm, now that I thought more, I think I miscalculated that it automatically would give you ~100 unique participant mana bonuses. Some reverse inference happened.

levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 54%

@degtorad haha, like I could ask a question then resolve it YES and suddenly I'm god emperor of universe?

degtoradis predicting NO at 72%

@levifinkelstein Something like that, though that was a fruit of undifferentiated thought so there can’t really be any similarities with defined wordy stuff. I think that’s akin to semantic hallucinations encountered in droves when dreaming.

Vitorbought Ṁ10 of YES

If someone moves this market a lot, it will be featured on the front page algorithmically.

levi finkelsteinis predicting YES at 50%

@VitorBosshard I think it might be taboo to engage in manipulation like this

Vitoris predicting YES at 72%

@levifinkelstein Why do you think this? What if I bet on a market that we'll have AGI in 2030 and then dedicated myself to build one? It's not insider trading, collusion, fake users, or anything like that (I understand why people often are against all of these). I'm just creating the world I want to live in ;)