Every time the market closes it has a 10% chance of resolving YES. After 10 closings it resolves NO.
37
145
750
resolved May 6
Resolved
YES

The random numbers will be generated by looking at the hash of the first BTC block mined after a specified time. The number is obtained by taking the hash mod 10 and then adding 1.

Next hash: First block mined after 05/05 10:00 GMT+2

Here are the numbers generated so far:

2 2 6 x x x x x x x

I will not bet in this market.

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https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/blocks/btc/788346 this is the block and it gives a 10? If nobody contradicts this I will resolve the market.

predicted NO

@levifinkelstein I contradict on the basis that I don't like it.

predicted YES

@levifinkelstein I’m getting 8.

predicted YES

@TobyBusickWarner Wait no I’m wrong

Yeah it’s 10

predicted YES

@levifinkelstein Hooray! 10*10%=100% never fails

@Karsh Technically since we only rolled the dice 4 times it was only 40% certain

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/blocks/btc/788225 seems like this is the one.

By adding 0x in front of the hash in python and taking mod 10 + 1 I get:

Just want to verify I'm not doing something wrong. Can someone verify this is correct?

@levifinkelstein oh wait I set it for tomorrow, that was not intended

@levifinkelstein lol it was past midnight when I set it....

predicted NO

@levifinkelstein I can confirm that you're at least doing it right though.

Update: to make the randomness public, the next number will be the first block mined after 05/05/23 10:00 GMT+2

@levifinkelstein sorry, I meant to add the hash mod 10 + 1

predicted NO

@levifinkelstein I've got a 5.

predicted NO

@Imuli Oooh, sorry I somehow didn't actually read the time and thought it referred to the next hour.

predicted YES
predicted NO

@TobyBusickWarner As much as that's a cool project, they pulses aren't really close enough together for this market - the last one was on the 1st at 03:49 UTC, Something like "the bitcoin block hash following market close, modulo 10, + 1" would be reasonably close to fair though (and anything closer would make verification harder).

predicted YES

@Imuli I think they actually do pulses every minute but it’s just been down for the past couple days for some reason. No idea why. Bitcoin hash works well.

predicted NO

@TobyBusickWarner Sorry, I should have said, reliably close enough :) I also don't know why NIST has recurring trouble keeping that service going.

@TobyBusickWarner Sure, are there any simple ways to do this?

predicted YES

@levifinkelstein Imuli’s hash idea is good. How about the hash of the next bitcoin block mined after 7:40 (eastern time) mod 10?

@TobyBusickWarner can't the hash have characters in it? What does that mean mod?

@levifinkelstein or is it like hexadecimal

predicted YES

The hash is hexadecimal

predicted YES

So we take the entire hash mod 10

@TobyBusickWarner mod 10 would not give 10 though, so we should do mod 10 then +1?

predicted YES

Sure

predicted YES

For example, the most recent hash ends in 3 in base 10. So the random number would be 4.