Background. The Home Office publishes quarterly statistics on immigration to the UK. According to their latest release, the Home Office granted 453,056 work visas in the year ending September 2024.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the total number of work visas granted in the year ending September 2025 exceeds the 453,056 work visas granted in the year ending September 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve NO.
Resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the Home Office on a quarterly basis. The relevant release (which covers data for the year ending September 2025) is expected to come out in November 2025.
The market will be resolved as soon as the Home Office releases this data. In the very unlikely event that the data has not been released by this market's official resolution date (1 January 2026), the market will resolve as NA.
Data source. The Home Office's immigration statistics can be viewed here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-september-2024 The number of work visas granted in the year ending September 2024 is contained in the dataset 'Entry clearance visas summary tables, year ending September 2024', which is downloadable here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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@mods resolve no (Creator inactive for 10 months). According to 2025 release here: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables.
Follow the directions to the data table specified in the resolution, and the number of applications was 273,442 in the year ending Sept 2025, which is less than 453,056 work visas in the year ending September 2024.
Screenshot of the relevant data table attached. Look at Cell E27:
