Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between September 24, 2026, and the closing of the polls for the first round of the Brazilian general elections on October 4, 2026, a new political or criminal scandal involving Senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro emerges.

For the purposes of this market, a "new scandal" is defined as:

• The announcement of a new formal investigation, inquiry, indictment, or official charge against Flávio Bolsonaro by Brazilian authorities (such as the Federal Police (PF), the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR), or the Supreme Federal Court (STF)).

• The unsealing of a previously confidential judicial case revealing entirely distinct criminal or unethical allegations against him.

Exclusions: Developments, updates, new testimony, or court rulings related to scandals/investigations already public prior to September 24, 2026, do not count as a "new scandal". This includes but is not limited to:

• The "Dark Horse" movie funding investigation involving disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro and Banco Master (unsealed on September 11, 2026).

• The parliamentary budget amendment investigation involving Robson Calixto ("Peixe") and the "Jogadores do Futuro" project (reported on September 22, 2026).

• Any past historical investigations, such as the rachadinha (salary-splitting) scheme in the Rio de Janeiro Legislative Assembly.

Sources of verification: Credible national or international news outlets (such as G1, Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, CNN Brasil, Reuters, or AP) or official publications from the Brazilian STF, PF, or MPF.

If no distinct new scandal is formally reported by the close of the first-round voting on October 4, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

Flávio Bolsonaro, a Senator and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is running as the Liberal Party's (PL) candidate in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. His campaign has already faced major legal headwinds in September 2026.

On September 11, 2026, the Supreme Federal Court unsealed an investigation showing Flávio was being investigated for corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion. The probe stems from allegations that he received 61 million reais ($12 million) from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance Dark Horse, an unreleased film about his father. Soon after, on September 22, 2026, details of a federal probe emerged regarding a budget amendment negotiated by Flávio's office with Robson Calixto ("Peixe"), a militia member convicted in the Marielle Franco case. Despite these scandals, Flávio Bolsonaro has remained competitive in presidential polling, framing the investigations as politically motivated. This market tracks whether any additional, distinct scandals will break before voters head to the polls for the first round on October 4, 2026.

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