Resolves YES if a federal government shutdown happens in 2026 and breaks the record for the longest shutdown (43 days)
If a shutdown doesn't happen in 2026, or if no shutdown in 2026 lasts over 43 days, this market will resolve NO
If a shutdown starts in 2026 but ends during a later year, this market will resolve depending on whether the record was broken in 2026
If a shutdown lasts exactly 43 days, this market will resolve 50%
Resolution will be determined based on credible sources
Update 2026-03-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Anything that Wikipedia counts as a shutdown will be counted as a shutdown for this market, including partial shutdowns (e.g. the current DHS shutdown).
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@lamp can you clarify what counts as a shutdown for the purposes of this market? will you be resolving on the basis that we are currently in shutdown?
@polymathematic Not the market creator, but appropriations have lapsed and many workers are furloughed, meeting the full legal definition for a government shutdown. It’s also listed as a shutdown on Wikipedia, every major news outlet is reporting it as a shutdown, both parties are calling it a shutdown in official messaging, and Kalshi even has a market called “How long will the government shutdown last?” The only case against is if you exclude partial shutdowns, but partial shutdowns and full shutdowns are pretty unambiguously just subsets of government shutdowns in general, so excluding them would be against both the actual definition and common definition of a “Government Shutdown.”
@Dssc and also OPM hasn’t had the shutdown noticed up since the bulk of the appropriations were passed. I certainly see the argument either way, but I’d rather not bet until the creator has clarified their position.
@polymathematic anything that wikipedia counts as a shutdown is counted as a shutdown for purposes of this market, which includes the current dhs shutdown