I have started an experiment described here: https://two-wrongs.com/poker-is-surprisingly-generous

The gist of it is that I try to use my forecasting skills to beat low-stakes cash poker, where beat means a positive win rate. (More details on computation linked in that article.)

I am currently at 871 hands played, win rate point estimate at 11 bb/100, and standard error of 52 bb/100.

I hope to get to at least 5000 hands by 1 February -- but I don't have an upper limit. I will update my win rate estimation in the comments as often as I remember to.

It might seem like a conflict of interest that I'm buying shares in this market, but I assure you my interest in the actual experiment is much greater than that of this bet. I'm using the bet more as a commitment device than anything. (This means I will certainly not stop playing when I'm just barely positive just to win this bet – I will continue playing to the best of my ability and given the time I have available until that date.)