Will the german government last until the next election?

Resolves Yes, if the current SPD/Greens/FDP government does not dissolve until the next planned election. If there is a new coalition agreement (Koalitionsvertrag) before the next planned election, this resolves no.

Close date updated to 2025-10-25 1:59 am

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
predicts YES

Edited description to hopefully clarify the resolution criteria.

This a very ambiguous question: What do you mean by the government 'dissolving'? That's not really a thing that can literally happen. There is a variety of things that can happen:

  • The Bundestag could elect a new Chancellor via a 'constructive vote of no confidence'. Then there will be a new government under a new Chancellor. - This pretty clearly should resolve yes, I guess.

  • The Chancellor could resign or die. This means the whole government would have to resign and this I guess would probably resolve as yes from the wording of the question. However, it could very well be that the coalition of SPD/Greens/FDP just continues with a new Chancellor elected by the Bundestag, which I guess shouldn't resolve as yes as in the spirit of the questions.

  • The Coalition could break down, but Scholz stays as Chancellor and just appoints new ministers (eg of a new coalition). So the same government would continue with lots of ministers replaced, I assume this should resolve yes?

  • The Bundestag might get resolved before the end of their usual term and there will be an early election. The government would likely stay in office (not acting but fully) until the new election. So this would resolve 'yes' if the early election is counted as the next election (which I guess a literal reading of the question would mean) but 'no' if next election actually means 'next planned election'. What if in this case some ministers of the government are replaced? (Like a somewhat possible case: All ministers of either Greens or FDP resign.)

(There might be more options.)

predicts YES

Thx for your clarifying question. However, I think you got No and Yes mixed up. This resolves Yes, iff the government lasts until the next election. So in your first bullet point, this market should clearly resolve No.

This market would resolve No, Yes, No and No respectively. I have edited the description to include "next planned election".

One good canditate for an objective resolution criteria might be the existence of a new "Koalitionsvertrag" before the next planned election? If others agree, I would include this in the description as well.