https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/abgeordnetenhaus/agh-2023/beitraege/berlin-wahl-zum-regierenden-buergermeister-kai-wegner-abgeordnetenhaus.html

@kottsiek resolves no in ~30 minutes

They have decided upon her successor.

"CDU-Landeschef Kai Wegner soll nach dem Sieg seiner Partei bei der Wiederholungswahl am 12. Februar Regierender Bürgermeister werden." https://www.zeit.de/news/2023-04/02/koalitionsvertrag-von-cdu-und-spd-in-berlin-fertig

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/berliner-spd-giffey-tendiert-offenbar-zu-koalition-mit-cdu-a-124a2797-2c89-40aa-8d4b-ae2fa1ac1933

This is now very likely, since the SPD has a few more votes than the Greens and I do not see a CDU Government happening.

@kottsiek Funnily enough, there have been a few votes missing which are being counted now. As the Greens are only 105 (IIRC) votes behind the SPD, things might still flip, although apparently the district where they were found is leaning towards SPD (atm the gained 10 votes): https://www.spiegel.de/politik/live-ticker-zur-berlinwahl-wiederholung-berlin-versucht-bis-466-zu-zaehlen-a-a32ab17f-80af-49f3-9ac6-1137ce461769#:~:text=Macht%20insgesamt%2063,eine%20%C3%9Cberraschung%20gut!
But there is also some reports of ripple effects of other recount possibilities that might re-allocate "compensation mandates" and that might have some effect? Really not sure what that means for the probability rn😅

@PeterRuschhaupt Looks like its resolved now: https://www.rbb24.de/politik/wahl/abgeordnetenhaus/agh-2023/beitraege/lichtenberg-berlin-wahl-2023-stimmen-briefwahl.html

when the repeat-election happens, but later is also nullified, that a) the repeat election did happen and b) Giffey is still in office.

So I ask: If the repeat will be nullified at the election-day or later, will this market resolve to Yes or N/A?

@BjornJurgens If there is a second repeat election after the first one, those results will count towards this market (If Giffey wins the second repeat election, this resolves Yes). If the repeat election is cancelled alltogether and never repeated, this resolves N/A, but I don't see that happening.

@kottsiek I should clarify: If another person is temporarily elected mayor before Giffey, this always resolves NO as stated in the resolution criteria.