As of this market's inception date, November 1 2022, Elon Musk is the CEO of Twitter.
This market will resolve to whoever becomes the next CEO of this company.
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Looks like Linda Yaccarino has updated her LinkedIn profile with "Chief Executive Officer at Twitter".
@itsTomekK It was removed, so that the answers can be more visible. I agree that the graph is not the first thing you should see on the market, and that the answers being up top is much better, although I would still like to see a history graph somewhere. For now, you can still see the history graph by embedding the market, but I wouldn't count on that working in the long run.
https://twitter.com/DylanByers/status/1656801802770354179
Does this count as the information being "public"? If this tweet is accurate, will this market resolve as Linda Yaccarino or "Someone not mentioned here, before information is public"?
@jack
> this tweet appears to be after the answer was added. Are there earlier ones?
I don't know about the earlier tweets, but I'm confirming that the first bet Linda Yaccarino on this market was before the tweet
https://twitter.com/DylanByers/status/1656801802770354179
Tweet is 2023-05-11 19:21:00 EDT
And the first bet is 2023-05-11 18:06:40 EDT:
$ curl -s 'https://manifold.markets/api/v0/slug/who-will-be-the-next-ceo-of-twitter-df1222bf7d76' |jq '.answers[40]'
{
"id": "41",
"name": "Logan Turner",
"text": "Linda Yaccarino",
"number": 41,
"userId": "g26yWuQJtWfjh12tJE4RArEzLi33",
"username": "LoganTurner",
"avatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb6lOFoLQos2HX7enoLuYEiJqPW11HpUxAX9AsB8w=s96-c",
"contractId": "jwrngiN7kQ7QJVTvVKHy",
"createdTime": 1683842800585,
"probability": 0.9666121598854229
}
$ TZ=America/New_York date -r $((1683842800585/1000)) +"%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S %Z"
2023-05-11 18:06:40 EDT
Probably we can ask @LoganTurner if he was using some public information or not.
@bessarabov Public information is not necessarily definitive. There were other tweets by relatively-prominent figures claiming that they themselves were the new CEO, which of course turned out to be false.
@bessarabov I added the answer after seeing this tweet and guessing that Linda was one of the most likely.
@Weepinbell I think the market description "This market will resolve to whoever becomes the next CEO of this company." is clear. I don't place too much stock in a free response answer somehow overriding the market creator's description, otherwise the best free response, if they are to be interpreted as being rules in and of themselves which the market must abide by, would be "This market resolves to this option 100%"
@ShitakiIntaki I agree free response options can’t override a market resolution (creators should have full control to remove/invalidate any) but in this case that answer was added by the market creator themselves, so I think should be given full consideration.
@fela I think people are underestimating the probability of him asking a lawyer to sort out the paperwork showing the dog is actually the CEO so that he can post it on twitter for a laugh.