Chris Pate on X has claimed that BigLaw firms are "about 6 months away from being completely wrecked by AI tools." This market will resolve YES if any of the 100 largest law firms by revenue see their 2026 revenue decline by 30% or more compared to their 2025 revenue, according to the AmLaw 200 Global Rankings, and that decline is attributable to AI. A decline will be deemed "attributable to AI" if:

• A senior or management-level partner at the firm explicitly attributes the decline in revenues to AI

• A reputable news organization attributes the decline to AI

• A major new AI legal tool launches or some other thing occurs that causes an industry-wide shift in law firm revenues (this will be holistically assessed based on reporting from reputable news organizations).

The market will resolve NO if there is no such decline, if the decline is clearly attributable to some other cause (e.g. departure of rainmaker, firm collapse, breakup of international conglomerate, etc.), or if the decline is not attributed to AI by anyone in the above list.

Because I may have to make a judgment call to resolve this market, I will not trade on it.