Will the first AI disaster be the last AI disaster?
36
Never closes
Yes, because it’ll kill everyone
Yes, because it’ll cause a pause/adjustment that prevents future disasters
No
Other (add comment)
Defining “disaster” as something that directly causes the deaths of >100 people (intentionally or unintentionally)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI Cause a Deadly Catastrophe?
30% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?
55% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2029?
12% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
60% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2029?
74% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
25% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?
8% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?
44% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
24% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI?
14% chance