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When will the Jacobian challenge be solved in Lean?
2
Ṁ125Ṁ152
2027
November 30, 2027
17%
Before July 2026
34%
Before Sep 2026
24%
Before Jan 2027
17%
Before July 2027
10%
After July 2027

Resolved by a successful solution accepted at https://lean-lang.org/eval/problems/jacobian_challenge_alggeo/

  • Update 2026-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is the maintainer of the lean-eval and will audit submissions before resolving

    • If a submission hacks the eval (e.g., proves False by the same technique), the market will not resolve YES

    • The creator intends to participate in this market but will stop trading after any submission is received

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(Note that I'm the maintainer of the lean-eval. I will only resolve this market after auditing a successful submission, and in particular if the submission manages to hack the eval -- e.g. the submitter could have proved False by the same technique -- I will not resolve this market.

I intend to participate in this market, but will undertake not to after any submission is received.)