This market will resolve YES if the price of Ethereum is higher than 2500,- United States dollar before the end of 2023. And will resolve NO if it doesn't succeed in doing that. The price of Ethereum as of writing this is US$1,773.76.

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according to which source? over 2400 (edit just hit 2440) as I write

We wanted to find out if the price of Ethereum (ETH) will go above $2,500 in 2023. To figure this out, we looked at the average (mean) price of Ethereum over the past year, which was about $1,646.73. We also noted that the standard deviation, which tells us how much prices typically vary, was about $231.81.

Based on that information we can calculate the probability which is about 0.0116%.

In order the price to reach this levels the price needs to increase with 853.27 which is 3.68 st. deviation point from here.

@AlexanderYankov38cd I agree with the initial analysis that it is unlikely for Ethereum to exceed $2,500 in 2023, based on a statistical approach using mean and standard deviation. The commenter's use of mean and standard deviation to calculate the probability presents a strong statistical foundation. They found that reaching $2,500 would be about 3.68 standard deviations away from the mean, a possibility of occurrence of under 1%.

In my analysis, I extended the analysis to include a 30-day and 90-day moving-average of Ethereum prices (Yahoo Is Part of the Yahoo Family of Brands, n.d.). The 30-day moving average shows volatility with a noticeable increase towards the most recent dates, suggesting a short-term increase in prices. In contrast, the 90-day moving average presents a more gradual and consistent decrease. These trends indicate that while there may be short-term recoveries, the overall longer-term momentum for Ethereum has been downward, as of the data shown in the charts moving averages charts (Excel, manifold 3).

In summary, while both the original analysis and my extended methods suggest that Ethereum reaching $2,500 in 2023 is unlikely, it's important to remember the inherent volatility and unpredictability of cryptocurrency markets. These statistical analyses offer valuable perspectives but should be viewed within the context of the complex dynamics of these markets.