Was Amelia Earheart's plane just discovered in the Pacific?
25
152
450
Jul 31
18%
chance

From NPR:

The team spotted the plane-shaped object between Australia and Hawaii, about 100 miles off Howland Island, which is where Earhart and her navigator, Fred Noonan, were supposed to refuel but never arrived.

The shape of the object in the sonar images closely resembles Earhart's aircraft, a Lockheed Electra, both in size and tail. Deep Sea Vision founder, Tony Romeo, said he was optimistic in what they found.

"All that combined, you'd be hard-pressed to convince me that this is not an airplane and not Amelia's plane," he said.

I'll check back on this in 6 months. If things are still uncertain, I'll extend the close/resolve date. I won't bet in this market.

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A TRUE 50/50!!!!

How about someone come up with some rationale for why/why not. I'll move the probability some, consider it a donation if you want to dig deeper!

bought Ṁ20 YES from 30% to 33%