The following are the 12 Operational Milestones from Tesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award. I didn't see any similar market within Manifold (may close N/A if there is a preexisting one)

Resolution criteria

Each of the 12 operational milestones is tied to specific targets in company valuation and operational achievements. Resolution will be determined by whether Tesla achieves each milestone by December 31, 2035:

1. 20 million Tesla vehicles delivered — Cumulative total deliveries tracked via Tesla's official quarterly reports

2. 10 million active FSD subscriptions — FSD subscriptions must be paid to count; verified through Tesla's earnings reports

3. 1 million Optimus bots delivered — Cumulative unit deliveries reported by Tesla

4. 1 million Robotaxis in commercial operations — Tesla hopes to deploy FSD Unsupervised with its Robotaxi fleets throughout the United States by the end of 2025; verified through Tesla's operational disclosures 5-12.

5. Adjusted EBITDA milestones ($50B, $80B, $130B, $210B, $300B, $400B, and $400B sustained over four consecutive quarters) — Verified through Tesla's SEC filings and audited financial statements

Each milestone resolves YES if achieved by the deadline, NO if not achieved, or N/A if Tesla ceases operations or the deadline passes without achievement.

Background

The 2025 CEO Performance Award was approved by Tesla's Board after a seven-month process. If Elon succeeds in achieving ALL of these milestones, Tesla will have a market capitalization of $8.5 trillion. Each Operational Milestone can only satisfy the requirements for a single tranche, and to meet each of the last three Adjusted EBITDA milestones, Tesla must achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $400 billion over three nonoverlapping periods, each made up of four consecutive fiscal quarters.

Considerations

Tesla is well behind the pace needed to meet its earlier stated goal of producing at least 5,000 Optimus humanoid robots this year, with only hundreds produced nearly eight months into 2025. Tesla's Full Self-Driving software faces low adoption, with only 12% of owners purchasing it. NHTSA has requested information about Tesla's development of robotaxi technologies to understand how Tesla plans to evaluate its vehicles and driving automation technologies for use on public roads, indicating regulatory uncertainty remains a material factor for robotaxi deployment timelines.