Will california be hit by a hurricane before January 1rst 2028
26
122
470
2027
25%
chance

Waters are warming, some think there is a good chance this happens

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What does "hit by a hurricane" mean?

Does it need to

  1. Landfall in California as a hurricane? or

  2. Hurricane windspeeds from a hurricane on California land? or

  3. Tropical storm force winds from a system that has been a hurricane? or

  4. Significant rainfall on California while a system is a hurricane offshore? or

  5. Significant rainfall on California from a system that has been a hurricane?

Hilary happening at time of question creation would qualify from 3 and 5 and maybe also 4. 1 is the toughest of these criteria. The use of hit rather than landfall which is much more vague makes me think 2 is more appropriate than 1. 4 and 5 seem too easy and 3 seems a bit weird.

@mark1263

predicts YES

@ChristopherRandles Great questions, I was thinking 1 when posing the bet but can see how 2 makes sense as well.

Hopefully, for the sake of this bet, it resolves unambiguously,

@mark1263 I think posting in the comments or adding to description to help clarify is fine at this stage.

I guess I could add more options based on your response. Which of the following do you think should cause a yes resolution?

2a) If a hurricane landfalls in Mexico and the centre of rotation moves over California while system is still classified as a hurricane.

2b) If a hurricane landfalls in Mexico and centre of rotation never travels over California but hurricane force winds are experienced in parts of California as a result of the hurricane while it is still classed as a hurricane. This might be adequately indicated by darker brown on wind history graphic.

e.g.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/HILARY_graphics.php?product=wind_history

predicts YES

@ChristopherRandles

I would personally lean toward 2a as being what I was thinking but I will defer to the national hurricane center for confirmation as to if a hurricane did or did not make landfall on California:

If it is classified as a hurricane I will go with that.

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