Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' Freedom in the World score, as published by Freedom House in their 2026 report, is 80 or less. The Freedom in the World report assesses countries annually on political rights and civil liberties, assigning a score out of 100. The 2026 report is expected to be released in early 2026 and will be accessible on Freedom House's official website: (freedomhouse.org).

Background

As of the 2025 report, the United States holds a Freedom in the World score of 84, maintaining its status as "Free." This score reflects the country's performance in political rights and civil liberties. However, recent trends indicate a decline in various freedom indices:

• Press Freedom: The U.S. has experienced a significant drop in press freedom, now categorized as "problematic" by Reporters Without Borders. This decline aligns the U.S. with countries where practicing journalism is considered dangerous. (axios.com)

• Economic Freedom: The Heritage Foundation's 2025 Index of Economic Freedom reports the U.S. at its lowest ranking ever, with a score of 70.2, placing it 26th globally. This decline is attributed to excessive government spending and mounting deficits. (heritage.org)

• Democracy Index: The Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index has downgraded the U.S. to a "flawed democracy," with a score of 7.85 out of 10, citing issues in the functioning of government and political culture. (en.wikipedia.org)

These downward trends in various freedom indices may influence the overall Freedom in the World score in future assessments.

Considerations

While the Freedom in the World score has remained relatively stable, the noted declines in press freedom, economic freedom, and democratic functioning could impact future evaluations. Traders should monitor upcoming reports and analyses from Freedom House and other reputable organizations to assess potential changes in the U.S. freedom score.