Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2024?
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274
แน€120k
resolved Aug 13
Resolved
YES

Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.

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NOOOO I CAN'T SELL MY STOCK TO RECOVER

bought แน€514 YES

As it was pointed out in the other market(https://manifold.markets/Recruiter/-will-donald-trump-tweet-in-2024#a915a1bcd7) this is an ad and not a real tweet. Blame Elon Musk and Twitter's weird UI.

bought แน€50 NO at 96%

Trump posted it as a real tweet now, which actually shows up on his timeline: https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1823016427680358790

@Agh thanks for resolving the market, I'm not very active here at the moment.

On one hand he desperately needs to keep truth social relevant due to his humongous personal stake in it, on the other he may get so desperate for attention that he uses Twitter again for his rigged election narrative if he loses.

Seems too high right now maybe? He has only tweeted once so far right?, when his mugshot was taken. If doesn't get arrested in 2024 there is a good chance he won't tweet. And the chance that he won't get arrested isn't 7%.

@justifieduseofFallibilism i would bet on a "STOLLEN ELECTION" tweet on election night

(edit: I canโ€™t read)

He can't, Twitter's now called X and tweets are just comments

predicted YES

@damin17 just like most other twitter markets for this to resolve using X also counts.

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