Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election?
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Plus
105
Ṁ46k
resolved Jul 2
100%98%
Dick Schoof
0.1%
Frans Timmermans
0.1%
Mona Keijzer
0.4%
Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius
0.0%
Caroline van der Plas
0.1%
Pieter Omtzigt
1.4%
Geert Wilders
0.1%
Ronald Plasterk
0.1%
Fleur Agema
0.1%Other

This question will not resolve if a new caretaker PM is appointed before the formation of a new goverment.

Clone of this market, but with fixed payouts (the other one is DPM):

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I've added Dick Schoof and made it so other people can add answers. Please only add serious answers.

@jskf what happens with 'Other' before Dick Schoof was added?!

@TheWabiSabi Everyone with shares in it now has the same number of shares in Dick Schoof.

@jskf normally, but not now

@jskf deleting Dick Schoof would be best

@TheWabiSabi I've closed the market for now. If this is affecting all MC markets it's a major issue and I assume/hope they'll backfill it.

@jskf (issue is known and will be fixed, no confirmation yet that they will backfill)

@jskf at this point it seems likely enough that they will backfill the shares that I feel OK about re-opening.

@TheWabiSabi Since your capital is locked up in shares you can't sell right now I've sent you 2200 mana as a loan, which is what the UI shows you as having spent on Other. Please repay me once they do backfill. If they don't you don't have to repay it.

bought Ṁ100 Dick Schoof YES

@jskf thank you, send it back! Looks solved :)

Gerrit Zalm?

Of een andere ex VVD coryfee?

sold Ṁ3 Ronald Plasterk YES

Plasterk is out:

Plasterk ziet af van premierschap: 'Beschuldigingen belemmerend voor functioneren' (nos.nl)

Wilders does have a problem now. He does not have an extensive list of multiple candidates for the premiership. It is obvious that, once appointed, formateur Richard van Zwol will enter into talks with the four parties that concluded the outline agreement. Together, they will have to see whether a new suitable candidate can be found. In doing so, Wilders will keep the initiative for the time being.’

Where does Fleur Agema come from now? This morning Ronald Plasterk still had 88%.

Premierschap voor Plasterk steeds onwaarschijnlijker, twijfel bij alle partijen (nos.nl)

@uair01 I saw she was at 28% in the other market so thought I'd add her here as well.

@jskf I guess that was a new option and nobody had actually traded it.

@jskf Spannend! Excited to see what happens. Things could get complicated 😂

Ronald Plasterk

Wait how are we ending up with Ronald Plasterk? It feels like no one voted for him (which is not necessarily required), but he comes out of right field for me.

@Fedor I haven't really been following the news, but I saw some stuff about people saying Plasterk was not suited to be PM, so I assumed he was being considered.

e.g. https://nos.nl/collectie/13962/artikel/2521026-ex-informateur-remkes-vindt-plasterk-ongeschikt-als-premier-naam-aangetast

As for nobody having voted for him, I'd guess it's quite likely that will be true of whoever ends up being the PM. Wilders becoming PM is unacceptable to NSC and probably VVD, but since PPV has by far the most seats they probably don't want someone from one of the other coalition partners.

Copilot gives good chances to Pieter Omtzigt. That’s strange.

@uair01 My random number generator said that 42214 would be the next minister president, so strange.

@Bart5f6d I see your irony, but there are some scientific papers that show that human AI cooperation improves predictions. I'm experimenting with that.

@uair01 Probably it uses data from before the elections. In any case, I would recommend not to put so much trust in a black box.

bought Ṁ20 Other YES

What if we get an 'exteaparliamentary cabinet' and there's no clear prime minister?

Does it resolve other, n/a, or wait for the next cabinet?

@Fedor There will be a prime minister, the constitution requires it.

Extra parlementair betekent alleen dat het kabinet niet bestaat uit alleen maar partijleden niet dat er geen ministers zullen zijn.

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