Who will be the next prime minister of the Netherlands following the 2023 Election?
Jul 1
Frans Timmermans
Mona Keijzer
Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius
Caroline van der Plas
Pieter Omtzigt
Geert Wilders

This question will not resolve if a new caretaker PM is appointed before the formation of a new goverment.

Clone of this market, but with fixed payouts (the other one is DPM):

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Copilot gives good chances to Pieter Omtzigt. That’s strange.

@uair01 My random number generator said that 42214 would be the next minister president, so strange.

@Bart5f6d I see your irony, but there are some scientific papers that show that human AI cooperation improves predictions. I'm experimenting with that.

@uair01 Probably it uses data from before the elections. In any case, I would recommend not to put so much trust in a black box.

bought Ṁ20 Other YES

What if we get an 'exteaparliamentary cabinet' and there's no clear prime minister?

Does it resolve other, n/a, or wait for the next cabinet?

@Fedor There will be a prime minister, the constitution requires it.

Extra parlementair betekent alleen dat het kabinet niet bestaat uit alleen maar partijleden niet dat er geen ministers zullen zijn.

bought Ṁ30 Other YES

Oh crap did not read the description
Not resolves means N/A?

@WieDan I'm guessing 'will not resolve' means it won't cause the market to resolve to person X who is the caretaker PM. It will keep not being resolved till we get a new prime minister, it won't resolve N/A (unless like the Netherlands dissolves as a country)

@Fedor yeah this

We hebben een serieus probleem!

bought Ṁ100 of Geert Wilders YES

If new elections are needed before there is a new prime minister, will this market resolve or stay open?

@Bart it will stay open

bought Ṁ40 of Geert Wilders YES

I see basically two possible outcomes except re-election:

GL/PvdA + NSC + (support from VVD) + D66 -> Frans Timmermans is PM
PVV + NSC + BBB + (Support from VVD) -> Geert Wilders is PM

I think the first one is slightly more likely than the second, because the NSC might not want to burn credibility in a Wilders government and might get a favourable deal with the GL/PvdA.

@StephanWaldchen In your first scenario, I think support from the VVD is extremely unlikely if Frans Timmermans would be PM.

@jskf Mhm, interesting, what makes you say that? Do you think VVD and PvdA are further apart than PVV and VVD?

He's been around for a long time, never expected to see that

bought Ṁ20 of Geert Wilders NO
bought Ṁ30 of Geert Wilders YES


bought Ṁ1 of Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius YES

Thanks, didn't see that one. Looks like it's also DPM though, so keeping this one open.

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