What's going to happen with "Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?"
21
875Ṁ7386
resolved Sep 29
100%99.5%
Resolves YES/NO by creator, resolution sticks for at least a week
0.2%
Resolves YES/NO by creator, re-resolved N/A by admins within a week
0.0%
Resolves %/MKT by creator, resolution sticks for at least a week
0.0%
Resolves %/MKT by creator, re-resolved N/A by admins within a week
0.0%
Resolves N/A by creator
0.0%
Resolves N/A by admins (before creator resolution)
0.2%
Bespoke artisan fair-trade solution by admins

There's shenanigans going on in the market (botting). What's gonna happen?

"Bespoke artisan fair-trade solution by admins" requires admins actually doing something to the market/resolution specifically. Banning the bots does not count. Unlisting the market or marking it non-predictive also doesn't count. Reversing only bot trades somehow would count. This option takes precedence over the other options if it happens.

https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-men-report-they-were-spanked-m

Will men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women?
48% chance. In my Big Kink Survey, I'm looking at young (19-26) people who picked the top 2 most liberal options (out of a 7-point political spectrum). This group is 179,000 people. Of this (young, liberal) group, did men report they were spanked more often in childhood than women? The question as presented in the survey: *question: From the ages of 0-14, how often were you spanked as a form of discipline? *tip: Spanking means striking the buttocks, with a hand or an implement such as a shoe or belt Never Rarely Sometimes Often Very regularly (I selected which gender to ask about - like, vs 'women spanked more often than men' by flipping a coin)

I won't trade in this market.

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where's "market won't be resolved in a timely manner"? 🙃

@Stralor It's there in the form of this one not resolving in a timely manner :p.

@chrisjbillington 😁

https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-men-report-they-were-spanked-m#CilfUA671lxKuO8Ori6d

Sorry I haven’t read the full discord thread. What’s the case for NA? Do we have reason to think the bots participated in the survey?

Thread on the Discord: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1154059129418166395

admin incentives

Where would "bots get banned and the bot accounts sell their shares" fall? (Not unwinding, just selling by normal market / limit orders.)

If the orders are created through admin intervention, I think this would count as bespoke. I'll give people an hour to comment if they disagree and then commit.

I agree

@jskf Makes sense to me. The edge case then might be something like "bot accounts that get banned for this reason always have their shares sold by limit order" with automated handling, applied to this and other future markets.

As long as a mechanism I would otherwise judge bespoke was implemented at least partially in response to this market, I will count it as bespoke, even if it's applied more broadly in the future.

😂

Are you gonna bet here too

@Joshua why do this?

It's important to people's bets to predict what the mods will do

@Joshua I don't care what they do. in this case they will show their incompetence

I forgot to include non-predictive/unlisting. Note that those do not count as bespoke solutions. If you're interested in whether it will happen, see

@jskf Assuming one of those happens, and bot bans happen, but nothing else, does this question then resolve as "Resolves YES/NO by creator, resolution sticks for at least a week"?

Yes

(Assuming the market was actually resolved YES/NO by the creator. I'll push the close date for this market back if resolution of the main market is delayed.)

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