What will be the main topic of the next market to reach 3k traders? (Excluding US elections, Donald Trump)
Basic
11
Ṁ269
resolved Apr 24
100%11%
AI
8%
Self-resolving, males vs. windows, etc.
20%
Politics
10%
Science / Mathematics / Technology
12%
War / Nuclear weapons
4%
Sports
7%
Manifold
6%
Natural disaster / Climate change
5%
Business / Economy
3%
Celebrity Drama
14%Other

For nested topics, the most specific one counts. For example:

  • A market about whether a peace treaty will be signed regarding the Ukrain/Russia war will count for "War / Nuclear weapons", but not "Politics".

  • A market about whether an LLM will achieve some benchmark counts for "AI" but not Science / Mathematics / Technology".

I'd like to avoid resolving to multiple answers. If a market is about more than one distinct listed topic, but one of the topics is clearly more relevant, I will resolve to that one. If not, I will resolve to an equal split.

As noted in the title, markets related to US elections or to Donald Trump do not count for this, even if they also pertain to some other topic listed here.

Feel free to suggest options in the comments.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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I forgot about this market, but Mira's Sudoku market reached the threshold last year:

I think “Other” might be underrated - wouldn’t someone have added “Superconductors” (eg) to this market once that market got big enough - thereby screwing holders of science/math/tech?

@Conflux Or what I’m trying to say is, won’t someone just add the most specific description of the answer once it’s clear that answer will win?

I intended to create this market with only me being able to add options. Did that not work?

@jskf Oh, good point. I think that did work, I just forgot that was possible.

What will be your policy for adding new options?

@Conflux If I think of any (or any are suggested), I'll ask for comments first before adding them. If a specific market seems likely to resolve this one, I probably won't add an option for it if it's covered by one of the other ones.

Important in the context of

Excellent market!

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