Will Nothing Ever Happen By Halloween?

Question

Edit 10/18: Note that the current require trader for a market to potentially be "Something" is ~1.2K traders, and this amount is always increasing with the active markets. See the comments for a full list.

Often we have a lot of debate over whether Something Is Going To Happen, but usually it ends up Not Happening. I am beginning to suspect that Nothing Ever Happens.

[image]Above is a list of the most popular markets at the time of market creation.

Looking at this list, the last time that Something Happened was in April when Donald Trump was arraigned for the first time. Nothing Has Ever Happened since then, by these standards.

This question resolves YES iff by market close no question listed above, or any question that has as many traders as one of those questions at time of its resolution, resolves because Something Happened. This means the minimum required trader count is constantly increasing.

Notably, this market does not resolve if a market resolves because of Nothing Happening.

For example, if the main LK-99 market resolves YES by Halloween then Something Has Happened and this resolves NO, but if the LK-99 market resolves NO then Nothing Is Continuing To Ever Happen and this market would still be on track to resolve YES.

I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased about what counts as Something Ever Happening.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Oct 25, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.