I had braces as a kid, which went well, but I didn't wear my retainer, and my teeth have since shifted a bit. The resultant crowding is mostly not noticeable unless you closely inspect my teeth, so I'm only slightly concerned about the esthetic impact.
However, my dentist of a few years has consistently suggested I try Invisalign to restore harmony to my teeth. They've pitched it primarily in terms of its long term health impacts: correcting my crowding/misalignment and bite will have positive effects on my periodontal (gum) health and help me avoid gum disease/keep my teeth as I age.
I had almost come around at my recent dentist visit, but the cost of the treatment was a fair bit higher than expected, so I decided to take some time to think it over. I turned to the orthodontic literature to help me understand the potential size of the effect on long term periodontal health, only to find... nothing.
In about 90 minutes of searching, I found basically nothing in the orthodontic literature suggesting any clear effect of orthodontic therapy on long term periodontal health (or even necessarily of malocclusion--teeth misalignment--on periodontal health!). All the reviews and studies turn up no effect.
So I turn to the good people of Manifold! This market resolves YES if, by the end of the year, I believe that:
1. Getting the Invisalign treatment will correct my malocclusion
2. Malocclusion has a significant effect (i.e. has been identified to have ANY effect, significantly) on long term (10+ years) periodontal health
3. Correcting malocclusion via orthodontic therapy averts this effect/patients of therapy avoid the negative impacts of malocclusion and the therapy itself doesn't have an equal or greater impact on health
I currently believe 1. (though the literature seemed more divisive at a glance than you might expect), but 2. seems questionable at best, and I've seen practically no evidence suggesting 3. at all. I'm happy to skim papers, read blog posts, or otherwise take in (high-quality) evidence that would inform my beliefs one way or the other.
(I feel like I should note here that my level of statistical sophistication is limited to, "reads Scott Alexander frequently," and I suppose "took a stats class in college, once.")
This market resolves NO if by the end of the year I (continue to) disbelieve any of 1., 2., or 3.
Betting policy: I will not buy YES in this market. I will buy NO in this market to (hopefully) subsidize others' research and review.
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Exciting question! I faced the same question with my new dentist (recently purchased the practice I visit) pushing €4000 treatment as you described. I can floss perfectly well, but my lower crowding would require tooth filing or possibly even an extraction. I'll pay to keep my teeth another 40 years, but I dislike having my pocket picked.
Many orthodontists will tell you that gum recession is a potential side effect of orthodontics. The reasons I've heard are that (1) orthodontics make it harder to care for your teeth (less of an issue with Invisalign than braces), (2) tooth movement itself can cause gum inflammation, and (3) for people with thin gum tissue, certain movements (like tilting teeth outward) can overstretch the tissue.
I dunno if it will defo help with gum disease but my teeth have moved like crazy so far and it's been very effective with that
Are u currently able to access undeaneath your teeth on all side when u floss?
I know for me due to crowding I was unable to floss properly
so if invisalign allows u to floss fully that would have very significant impacts to your long term gum health
Happy to answer questions folks feel are relevant. In case anyone is curious, my literature review methodology amounted to "skim the abstracts of relevant-sounding papers in the first page or two of results on Google Scholar for 'long term effects of orthodontics on gum health', and if they sounded like they could have relevant evidence, check to make sure they say they adjusted for obvious confounders like income."