Currently Manifold supports spot buying, spot selling, and limit buying, but not limit selling.
If you hold some number of Yes (or No) shares, there's no way to say "if someone else tries to buy Yes (or No) shares at price X, then I'll sell my own Yes (or No) shares". This would be a Limit Sell, and is currently unsupported.
The closest you can do is either:
• Spot Sell: Repeatedly check back in on the market, and if the price ever reaches X, sell your shares manually
• Limit Buy: Put in a limit order such that if a person tries to buy Yes (or No) shares beyond a certain probability, then you will automatically buy some number of corresponding No (or Yes) shares to counteract them
This market will resolve Yes if any sort of limit selling functionality is added. This includes either or both:
• Being able to specify the share price you're willing to sell at
• Being able to specify the probability you're willing to sell at
If there are technical reasons that this is impossible to do, and a statement to this effect is made by the developers, or by someone with verifiable subject-matter-expert credentials, then this market will resolve to No prior to the stated resolution date.
1,000
3.00@FlorisvanDoorn Oh wait, never mind, the current month is not yet october, so it's actually higher 🤦 Still, it's a relevant market.
@gigab0nus In a limit buy you need to have the funds on hand to perform the buy, even if afterwards you end up net positive.
It's also much less obvious how much mana you'll have after performing a buy + a partial anti-buy vs performing a buy + a partial sell.
@jonsimon Lol, but seriously yeah it’s been a bit deprioritized, sorry about that! Not sure of an eta atm
How much of a distinction from buying the contrarian shares at a specific (integer) probability are you looking for exactly? If you already bought M$5 YES at 10% (50 shares) and wish to sell YES at 90%, is this not already equivalent to to setting up a M$5 buy limit order of NO at 90% to net M$40 profit (paid in M$10 and cashed out M$50)?
@ShitakiIntaki One difference is you need to pay for the offsetting shares before they are canceled. I have in the past hit people's limit orders in unrelated markets at a loss solely to drain their balance, so that in a certain target market they couldn't pay for offsetting shares and took a large loss despite the "buy low sell high" appearing to be risk-free...
But you can always sell shares even with 0 or negative balance.
@Mira I see, the distinction is validating the transaction against your global balance vs validating the transaction against your market shares. The post transaction results are equivalent, but the first one can fail to validate pre-transaction.
Well either of them could fail to validate pre-transaction but based on different criteria and therefor have different failure cases.
@jonsimon I think they're focusing on non-power-user features, and a lot of casual users don't use limit orders all that much.