
Will the FTC's "click to cancel" rule take effect?
Will the FTC's "click to cancel" rule take effect?
4
1kṀ273May 16
53%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if the FTC's rule requiring easy cancellation for subscriptions takes effect on May 14 as planned. No if it is axed or delayed (doesn't matter if this is from Trump or courts)
By "takes effect" I mean that it forces companies to change their policies, not whatever legalese people use that says it is already in effect.
News article with more info: https://www.npr.org/2024/10/16/nx-s1-5154814/click-to-cancel-subscriptions-memberships-ftc-rule
Rule in question:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/11/15/2024-25534/negative-option-rule
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal?
33% chance
Will the FTC implement their proposal for a federal retroactive ban on non-compete clauses by the end of 2024?
9% chance
Will the FTC attempt to block a TikTok acquisition, if one is attempted?
36% chance
Will the Supreme Court strike down the FTC’s attempt to ban noncompete agreements before the end of 2026?
26% chance
Will Lina Kahn and the FTC win a major anti trust case against any big tech company before 2026?
26% chance
What will happen in the H&R Block vs FTC situation?
Will the Western Washington US District Court grant the FTC a permanent injunction against Amazon?
39% chance