MANIFOLD
Will any of the 2026 USA(J)MO cutoffs be greater than 400?
79
Ṁ100Ṁ8.5k
resolved Mar 21
Resolved
N/A

Resolves based on the cutoffs for USAMO and USAJMO (March 21-22, 2026) announced by MAA, determined using scores from AMC 10/12 A (November 5, 2025), AMC 10/12 B (November 13, 2025), AIME I (February 5, 2026), and AIME II (February 11, 2026)

Resolves YES if any of the 8 cutoffs are greater than 400 and resolves NO if none of them are

If MAA announces a cutoff then later rescinds it and announces a new cutoff, this market will be re-resolved based on the new cutoff if the resolution needs to be changed

USAMO Index = AMC 12 Score + 20 x AIME Score

USAJMO Index = AMC 10 Score + 20 x AIME Score

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@traders Since MAA didn't announce any cutoffs and the market description says "Resolves based on the cutoffs ... announced by MAA", I've decided that the most reasonable resolution, in my opinion, is N/A. I don't like to resolve markets to N/A, but unfortunately, I don't see a better option here.

This shouldn't be an N/A, at least I don't think. It's pretty obvious that everyone with like 390 has qualified in basically all setting so this should be a no, right? but i lowk might be quite biased lmao

@sohamsamanta I agree that it's very unlikely that anyone who scored more than 400 didn't qualify, but it's hard to know for sure. And the market description also specified "announced by MAA", which didn't happen. I didn't foresee a situation where MAA wouldn't announce any cutoffs.

@traders Since MAA didn't announce any cutoffs and the market description says "Resolves based on the cutoffs ... announced by MAA", I've decided that the most reasonable resolution, in my opinion, is N/A. I don't like to resolve markets to N/A, but unfortunately, I don't see a better option here.

@traders How should I resolve this if no cutoffs are announced by March 21?

@jonathan resolve N/A

@jonathan idk keep it until then?

If cutoffs aren't announced, I'll keep this market open until March 21. I'm leaning towards resolving N/A because I don't know how else I would resolve this, but if any of you have other ideas, I would like to hear them.

@jonathan most likely resolve No, there are people that jmoed with 150a+10i, 126.5b+11i (go around looking for 2 cutoffs but VERY unlikely that they are above 400)

@RyanandPickles But that's just JMO, AMO cutoffs are higher than JMO.

Even though I don't think it's likely that any cutoffs were higher than 400, I don't think I can really resolve this NO unless someone can prove that nobody with a 400+ index didn't qualify.

I also said in the description when I created the market, "announced by MAA". So I still think right now that N/A is best if nothing is announced by March 21.

@jonathan you literally wrote Jon in that title

@jonathannever mind sorry you’re right probably na

bought Ṁ5 YES

manufacturing a silver lining just in case

I feel like if there were a lot of cheaters in the AMC if they will do bad in the AIME which is harder to cheat on, then the overall USAMO cuttof will be lower.

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