Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Mathematical Association of America (MAA) officially and publicly releases the numerical index qualification cutoffs (the combined AMC and AIME index threshold) for the USA Mathematical Olympiad (USAMO) and/or the USA Junior Mathematical Olympiad (USAJMO) for any future competition cycle on or before December 31, 2028.

This market will resolve to NO if no such official numerical cutoffs are publicly released by the MAA by December 31, 2028.

Key Details:

• Official Source: The cutoff scores must be published directly by the MAA on their official website (e.g., maa.org) or via an official MAA AMC communications platform.

• Exclusions: Unofficial estimations, crowdsourced data, or statistics compiled by third parties (such as the Art of Problem Solving community, tutoring organizations, or individual coordinators) will not trigger a YES resolution unless they are explicitly adopted and published officially by the MAA.

• Extension: The target resolution date is set to December 31, 2028, but the market creator may edit this description to extend the timeline if desired.

Background

In previous years, the MAA routinely published the exact qualification index cutoffs (historically calculated using combinations of AMC 10/12 and AIME scores) for the USAMO and USAJMO. However, during the early 2026 competition cycle, the MAA departed from this tradition and did not publicly release the qualifying thresholds, opting instead to send invitations directly and privately to qualifying students.

This opacity led to widespread speculation and frustration in the competitive math community, with some linking the shift to cheating concerns on the AIME or potential changes in selection criteria. This market predicts whether the MAA will return to its historical practice of publishing these numerical thresholds in future cycles, or if the "hidden cutoff" policy is here to stay.

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