Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of July?
32
610แน€6627
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
NO

The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.

Mainstream media sources include the Washington Post, CNN, Fox, NPR, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Economist etc. Rando Twitter accounts do not count.

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€138
2แน€129
3แน€74
4แน€67
5แน€36
Sort by:

Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.

Am I understanding correctly that even if they end up getting pushed out 100% completely, this would resolve as NO as long as there is no conscious change in strategy?

@42irrationalist There has to be reports from mainstream media sources that the Ukrainian army has signaled that they are pulling out of Bakhmut. If they never decide to pull out and abandon the city, merely getting slowly pushed out until they no longer hold any part of the city, that would not count towards a Yes resolve.

@johnleoks Soo.... The ukrainians seem to have finally left Bakhmut, but there was no point when they decided to pull out specifically. Resolve as No?

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules