Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of July?
26
closes Aug 1
18%
chance

The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.

Mainstream media sources include the Washington Post, CNN, Fox, NPR, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Economist etc. Rando Twitter accounts do not count.

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42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistbought Ṁ40 of NO

Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.

Am I understanding correctly that even if they end up getting pushed out 100% completely, this would resolve as NO as long as there is no conscious change in strategy?

johnleoks avatar
johnleoks

@42irrationalist There has to be reports from mainstream media sources that the Ukrainian army has signaled that they are pulling out of Bakhmut. If they never decide to pull out and abandon the city, merely getting slowly pushed out until they no longer hold any part of the city, that would not count towards a Yes resolve.

Schwabilismus avatar
Schwabilismusbought Ṁ10 of NO

@johnleoks Soo.... The ukrainians seem to have finally left Bakhmut, but there was no point when they decided to pull out specifically. Resolve as No?

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