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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/30/russias-wagner-mercenary-force-boss-threatens-bakhmut-withdrawal

ISW just reported a controlled UA withdrawal from at least one area of Bakhmut.

“Additional geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces conducting a controlled withdrawal from one building along the T0504, suggesting that Russian forces also advanced in that area of Bakhmut.”

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1652136113472000000

I didn't put the title as "pull out successfully" or "pull out completely". As long as there are reports that Ukraine is pulling out, regardless whether there is still fighting in certain parts of the city, that's the only thing we're looking at.

Would a report like the one below be enough?

Julian Röpke, a journalist at BILD writes on twitter:
"Russian invasion forces captured 90% of #Bakhmut with Ukrainian forces clinching to some quarters in the West. There is no reverse in trend for four months now, with Ukraine expected to lose the city without a decisive counter push to its north of south within weeks."

@42irrationalist I don't see any mainstream media sources reporting that the Ukrainian army has signaled that they are pulling out of Bakhmut.

@johnleoks what does it mean for Ukraine to pull out of Bakhmut?

For example, is it possible to lose control of the entire city without "pulling out"?

@42irrationalist Exactly what it means, pulling out, withdrawing their forces. Yes of course it's possible, surrendering to the Russia army for instance.

@johnleoks I meant the more likely outcome where the current course of action continues where they slowly lose control of the entire city? Does this count as pulling out?

@42irrationalist Depends on what does the mainstream media says. We go by reports from reputable mainstream legacy media sources.

@johnleoks what about geolocated footage of them withdrawing, and their commanders etc stating the same without MSM reporting on it.

Because that is what is happening

@danielblenkey The whole point of using mainstream media is to avoid untrustworthy sources like the ones I'm guessing you're looking at.

@danielblenkey I don't care about sources from riff raff Twitter users.

I am kind of confused how this is going to resolve.

• Ukraine seems to control only 5-10% of the area of Bakhmut.

• They are slowly pulling out of the existing areas (or being pushed out by Russia).

At the same time the market trades at only 20%. Pretty weird.

@42irrationalist I'm assuming from the other similar markets by @johnleoks and his comments there that this will be based on reports by mainstream media that they are withdrawing from the city. The report you've given as an example in the other comment explictly states that they're still there and holding some quarters.

In general "pulling out" seems to imply that they're not trying to hold it anymore and their new goal is to get away from it. I haven't seen anything yet that suggests they've switched to that regime but I'm also annoyed by the ambiguity in this market and that's why I haven't been betting it lower.

@NamesAreHard Yeah, I'd probably say that Russia is pushing Ukraine out rather than Ukraine is pulling out. I'm not sure I'd bet > 100-150 mana if I realized early how much ambiguity is going on to be there.

What happens if Ukraine loses the control of Bakhmut without "pulling out"?

Or what happens if they control only 3-5% of the city without technically pulling out? This seems like the most likely outcome now.

https://t.me/battleinsightsRU/688

Evacuation of the AFU has begun, when will this be resolved as YES?

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️Ukrainian troops left only a couple of brigades in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), the rest of the forces were withdrawn, the Spanish newspaper Mundo writes on Monday, citing a source familiar with the movements of the Ukrainian military.

Starting to worry about encirclement: “Geolocated footage posted on Apr. 16 shows that Wagner forces have advanced north of the T0504 Kostyantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut route along the main railway in Bakhmut.”

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1648133441739694082

@alangrow Russia claims Ukrainian troops 'surrounded' in Bakhmut (aa.com.tr) im looking to see if there's another source on this

If they decide to withdraw, it might take some time. How would the market resolve if they are in the process of withdrawing on the close date but still control some part of the city and there's still fighting going on?

In general it's not fully clear to me how you'll determine whether they have pulled out.

@NamesAreHard I didn't put the title as "pull out successfully" or "pull out completely". As long as there are reports that Ukraine is pulling out, regardless whether there is still fighting in certain parts of the city, that's the only thing we're looking at.

Russia claims Bakhmut surrounded, Kyiv says holding on

I was surprised to learn, via a recent leak, that Ukraine was nearly encircled in Bakhmut on February 25th. Really hope UA can keep Highway T0504 open in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1645157563808497666