Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of May?
44
536
830
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.

Mainstream media sources include the Washington Post, CNN, Fox, NPR, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Economist etc. Rando Twitter accounts do not count.

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predicted NO

I see no evidence for a Yes resolve. Anyone gonna argue otherwise? We'll give it a few hours.

predicted NO

Seems that Wagner/Russia are gaining more and more ground inside the city. But based on my impression, it seems that Ukraine are "pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible".

predicted NO

@TorBarstad As far as I understand (from a different market of @johnleoks) even if Ukraine is completely pushed out, this resolves as NO. Getting pushed out is not the same as pulling out for the purposes of the resolution.

predicted YES

@TorBarstad This is my impression as well but I think this is supposed to be resolved based on mainstream media reporting, so we'll see how they decide to frame this (that has been the main reason for my YES bets on these markets, I can easily imagine headlines like "Ukraine has withdrawn from Bakhmut").

sold Ṁ90 of NO

@NamesAreHard Gonna sell some of my shares then, these types of market way too ambiguous

predicted NO

@42irrationalist It's really not ambiguous. From the description:

"The market only resolves Yes if the consensus from mainstream media sources is that the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is pulling out. Pulling out means a full scale withdrawal. Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out.

Mainstream media sources include the Washington Post, CNN, Fox, NPR, BBC, Al Jazeera, The Economist etc. Rando Twitter accounts do not count."


predicted NO

@johnleoks The ambiguity is in what counts as reporting of "pull out" or "full scale withdrawal". If the BBC reports "Bakhmut has been captured by Wagner and the Ukrainian Forces have withdrawn to the flanks." Is that enough to resolve yes? It's not a "full scale withdrawal" in my book, but you might interpret things differently.

predicted YES

@TorBarstad The same source now claims that they have retreated from the last fortified area (https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1659953519544225792):

predicted NO

If the BBC reports "Bakhmut has been captured by Wagner and the Ukrainian Forces have withdrawn to the flanks." Is that enough to resolve yes? It's not a "full scale withdrawal" in my book, but you might interpret things differently.

That wouldn't be "a full scale withdrawal" in my book either (standing in contrast to e.g. Russia's withdrawal from Kherson). Also, the description says "consensus from mainstream media sources". So if BBC describes it as being a full-scale withdrawal, there would still be the question of whether other mainstream media agree (or if other mainstream platforms maybe contradict this description).

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@TorBarstad Full-scale in my book simply means that all of them withdraw instead of a partial withdrawal where only the main part of the forces do (that partial one has most likely already happened btw, the Russian advance has been surprisingly quick in the last week). Not sure how Kherson is relevant, did anyone expect them to retreat all the way back to Chasiv Yar or even further back and leave Ivanivske for example? Your point about the consensus is a good one and just a single headline definitely shouldn't be enough to resolve this.

bought Ṁ23 of YES

@NamesAreHard "..Them being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count as pulling out..." I would argue that they have been trying to hold as much ground as possible. And the fight has been going on for months so no one can claim this was a quick advance.

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode I can't objectively disagree here because "slowly" is subjective, it seems to me that they could've delayed it more if they wanted but also could have withdrawn much more swiftly as well. I'm very glad that we don't actually have to figure out a solution here and we get to defer this to the media :D

predicted NO

Not sure how Kherson is relevant

It exemplifies what seems to me as a very clear example of a withdrawal that isn't in accordance with the description of "being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible".

In order to take Kherson, the Ukrainians didn't have to fight street by street throughout most of the city.

did anyone expect them to retreat all the way back to Chasiv Yar or even further back and leave Ivanivske for example?

I dunno - I don't remember anyone describing that possibility.

But I remember people predicting that Ukraine might pull out quickly (or advising them do so), prior to Russia even capturing the center. This stands in contrast to making Russia go more or less street by street, in costly infantry attacks (as opposed to leaving large swaths of the city more or less for the taking).


In the description "Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut by the end of May?",

johnleoks references this tweet in the description: https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1631011297335599104.

I can't objectively disagree here because "slowly" is subjective, it seems to me that they could've delayed it more if they wanted but also could have withdrawn much more swiftly as well.

I agree about there being some subjectivity/ambiguity.

When he writes "being pushed out slowly while still trying to hold as much ground as possible does not count" - well, "hold as much ground as possible" doesn't make sense if interpreted in a totally literal way (nor do I think anyone meant it, or interpreted it, in a totally literal way). So there is the question of what's in the spirit of the description that's given.

To me, the description seems like it is written with the intention of creating a high bar for interpreting what happened as a full-scale withdrawal. (Why? It seems to me that it was because the type of scenario it was trying to "point at" is a different one from the one that happened.)

Anyway, we take a risk when we bet on markets that have some room for interpretation, and what happens happens 🙂

predicted NO

@AlexbGoode You're thinking too much. Leave it to the mainstream media to figure it out. We go by consensus.

predicted NO

@TorBarstad Yes, that wouldn't be a full scale withdrawal, I don't think anyone would say it would be.

predicted NO

Btw, I do think the Twitter-guy who I showed a screenshot from is a biased source (he seems too trusting of pro-Russian sources).

The image below shows someone arguing differently.

But as others have mentioned, the resolution-criteria is regardless tied to how mainstream media present things :)

predicted NO

Does it count as pulling out if the front moves so far toward Russia that no troops are left in bakhmut?

@CromlynGames No it wouldn't count.

bought Ṁ55 of NO

I've only ever lost money betting against Ukraine. At this point, I'm not sure the Russians will have enough puff before the spring counter offensive starts. And while the strategy of Ukraine is to trade land for time, I'm pretty sure Ukraine is ready to hold on for the propoganda value alone.