On 20–22 March 2023, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, visited Russia to discuss a peace proposal and cease fire for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-meets-dear-friend-xi-kremlin-ukraine-war-grinds-2023-03-20/A peace proposal would be considered as successful if both Russia and Ukraine announce that they agree to China's terms.
If either party rejects the peace proposal, that would mean that China failed.
We will go by mainstream media reporting such as CNN, Fox, Reuters, New York Times, Washington Post, The Guardian etc.
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They seem to be starting a new round, I'm not sure how to interpret it for this market though.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/neither-ukraine-nor-russia-have-shut-door-talks-china-envoy-2023-06-02/
The Economist thinks that China is more likely to sell Russia arms than they are to broker a peace deal https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9yc3MuYWNhc3QuY29tL3RoZWVjb25vbWlzdGFsbGF1ZGlv/episode/NjQxODM2Y2UzODgzYjIwMDEwMGI1NTlh?ep=14
@MarkIngraham Please avoid making inflammatory remarks that are unrelated to the content of the market. I mentioned the arms sales because of how polar-opposite they are to a peace deal.
@MarkIngraham I'm not familiar with Chinese steel quality, but I doubt it would make Russia's sclerotic struggling military machine any worse off.
@MarkIngraham Ukraine didn't have massive international financial and military arms support when Russia took Crimea. In fact Ukraine basically didn't attempt to resist at all. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-annexation-idUSKBN1A90G0
@JoshuaWilkes Unlike your market, mine doesn't require a 7 day wait period to see if the ceasefire is broken. My only criteria is the announcement.