Trump is asking his supporters to protest his imminent arrest next week. Will there be riots in New York in March?
resolved Apr 1
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predicted NO

wake up, john, and give me my mana

predicted NO

@AlQuinn It is still March my dude

predicted NO

@ForrestTaylor Not in New York

bought Ṁ1,414 of NO

"A handful of reporters and tourists milled around the Fifth Ave. entrance to Trump’s NYC headquarters, waiting to see if anything would happen."

Total nothingburger as expected...

bought Ṁ4,500 of NO

Very Low Energy. Sad!

predicted NO

Pressing F to pay respects to all the TDS YES people. Sorry the basket of deplorables didn't contain even 1% of the riot impetus as BLM and Antifa.

predicted NO

@AlQuinn It seems like everyone is a bit rioted out. There were no riots as far as I know after Tyre Nichols was killed this year, either.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Do the roots have to be related to Trump? Because Nee Yorker's love a good riot in general, they might have one coincidentally.

predicted NO
predicted NO

@jonsimon the base rate for this is still really low just taking this wikipedia list:

Something like 1 riot per 8 years, though the George Floyd nonsense was actually a "mostly peaceful protest" as we all now know. The odds of a riot in a 10 day period is ~1/3,000.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

He stokes their rage, their fear, their plight,
Urging them to march and fight.
But justice will prevail, take heart,
No riots will tear New York apart.

predicted YES

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