@johnbettington , since it seems relevant to this market, are you straight? And does this girl know?

@johnbettington If this resolves YES, you will show us the text message as a receipt, correct?

Beware, traders. I smell market manipulation.

While this is all above board and technically fair by all the rules I see here, be careful.

The Market Creator stated that they would let the market play out until the 2 weeks is up, not saying if she texted back until then, supposedly dissuading us from trading on theta decay.

However, no rule stated that the market creator could not trade on this market!

@JennypucZt and @johnbettington, AKA Jenny and jeremy, respectively, seem to be people of interest in the trade ledger.

The Market Creator and Jenny slammed the market down to 10% last night. Jeremy, obviously in the know about the status of this text conversation, has insider information, and made an implicit signal that the text hasn't happened yet with that 1,000 mana trade.

Also, to add more context from my investigation, Jenny is a new user and was paid 1,000 mana to make that slew of trades.

Given all this context, I assume that the market Jenny made here is related to this text message market: /JennypucZt/does-this-guy-like-women

All this to say, if the Market Creator wanted to keep a secret for 2 weeks, I'm afraid the cat's out of the bag.

Full disclosure, I too am playing this market. I just now purchased a NO order with the expectation that the rest of you all will buy the market down so I can sell at a profit. I have no relation to these 2 users and am only trying to monetize my market research. Happy trading!

To be clear, nobody has done anything wrong or unfair here. Don't hate the players, hate the game!

@Quroe Half the fun of Manifold is that insider trading (usually) can't actually hurt anyone

@SimonWestlake Agreed, I made a whole game show about it. 😉

Insider trading

Unlike many other places, Manifold encourages you to make markets more accurate by trading based on private information you might have. (This is sometimes referred to as “insider trading”). As long as you didn’t have some other duty to keep the information private, such as:

• duty to your company,

• duty to the person who told you this information, or

• a public commitment made on the market,

the Manifold community welcomes insider trades. Caveat emptor!

-Manifold's Community Guidelines

@Quroe I might be wrong, but this is insider trading, not market manipulation, right? I thought the latter would be doing malicious stuff to make it resolve in your favour e.g. texting the girl that the market creator is a sex offender

@Quroe also their bets could be hedging, right?

@Quroe good catch.

In the other market, I also noticed that Jenny has bought NO.

@TheAllMemeingEye Perhaps you're correct. Maybe "manipulation" isn't the best word... But...

It is interesting that Jenny is talking up YES sentiment, but they have the biggest NO position at time of comment. I won't entirely uproot my heels from their dug in position.

she definitely will! with that handsome face

@JennypucZt

👍

stunning! soooo pretty!!!!!! your literally glowing

Either I get the satisfaction that someone out there is reconnecting with an old friend, or I win 100 mana. It's a win-win.

need you to get this text back for my own personal sake this year. im resting my entire hopes for the rest of my 2025 in this

@No_uh please consider diversifying your investments 🙏

@TheAllMemeingEye

Tragic

I believe

Couldn’t bet no.

7% battery?

xkcd #1373

If you get a response, does this resolve Yes immediately?

@LarsOsborne no, i will wait the whole two weeks out

@johnbettington Will you tell us if you got the text?

@DontGoHome It sounds like lack of resolution is not evidence of not-YES.

We should not be trading with theta decay in play.

@Quroe Yeah I've sold my No

@DontGoHome at the end of the two weeks