Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if at least 30 distinct Manifold users post comments containing "Happy New Year" in the specified market/thread before January 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. Each user counts only once, regardless of how many times they post the phrase. Resolution will be determined by manually counting unique usernames in the comment section.
Background
Manifold is an online prediction market platform where users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'. New Year's greetings are a common tradition on the platform, with community members often celebrating the transition to a new year in market comments and discussions.
Considerations
The threshold of 30 users is a specific, countable metric that depends on community engagement during the New Year period. Participation may vary based on platform activity levels and user awareness of the market. Comments must explicitly contain the phrase "Happy New Year" to count toward resolution.
Number of Manifolders: 9
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน250 | |
| 2 | แน89 | |
| 3 | แน53 | |
| 4 | แน47 | |
| 5 | แน34 |
Happy New Year! (I think this resolves yes now)
@speck if I were a genius I would have double-commented with some time delay to induce artificial confidence in Yes but I did not do this and I don't think anybody else did either. (Unless we're picky about capitalization?)