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MANIFOLD
Will SPX reach its all-time intraday high again by the end of 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ110
Dec 31
82%
chance

Resolves YES if, after this market’s creation and through Thursday December 31, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (21:00 UTC) inclusive, the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday value of at least 7,816.70, its all-time intraday high at creation (August 13, 2026). An exact tie counts; a record closing value is not required. Otherwise resolves NO.

The threshold stays fixed. Earlier touches before creation do not count. Only the cash price index counts: SPY, futures, perpetuals, CFDs and total-return indexes do not qualify. Regular sessions include scheduled shortened sessions and the official closing value. Erroneous ticks subsequently corrected by the data provider do not count.

Resolution uses WSJ SPX historical daily High data, with S&P Dow Jones Indices data taking precedence if they disagree. A corrected official session high can establish YES even if the live touch was missed. YES may resolve early once verified.

Sources: wsj.com ; https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/ ; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars

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