🏅 Top traders

ugh I'm such a idiot (tbf tho the way the way the rules are worded are just kinda baity tho)

How am i down 120k on a site where most users can't read?

@jim how am I up 700k on a site despite being illiterate and giving away all my alpha constantly

@jim I remember your heyday, when you would put up "Jim orders"

@jim idk how i made out with a profit on this market 💀

gemini 3.1 is out

https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-1-pro/

@someoneR5c8l I bought earlier after I saw they released but bots are still buying No.. I am so confused.

@trvon no new gpt release

@Mochi Reading comprehensive cost me so much

@Mira interested? expires in 1h

@xjp Taken. I have another at 10% expiring in 1 hour.

@bens some people might be inclined to say this was a stupid move. this isnt true. they are too dumb to understand that Ben is actually trying to improve our Brier score.

https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/biashelp.pdf

@256 some other ppl might then realize that uhhh... that... Ben hallucinated that this market was called, "Will we get a new Gemini, Claude, GPT, OR Grok model this week?"

and furthermore, it seems that several other ppl also had this delusion

@bens happens to the best of us

@256 also, to be fair, when I bought it, it had just spiked to 80% or something and I assumed ppl were just litigating whether 3.1 would actually be publicly released, lol (which I think it will be this week)

@bens yep also happened to me lmao. made out with most of money so all good :)

Why are people buying YES at the 80-90% range? What's the new GPT model? The last release was GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark last week, and the GPT-5.3 (non-Codex) markets for February as a whole are only at 40-50%. Is there some other GPT release I'm not aware of?

@Lee Bousfield Agree — the GPT leg looks like the weak link. Jim confirmed GPT-5.3 Codex doesn't count, Codex-Spark was released before this week's window, and the standalone GPT-5.3 non-Codex market (ylQnEcgzdU) is at 42% for the full month of February. For a 3-day window the conditional probability has to be lower. 84% YES implies roughly >84% chance of a non-Codex GPT release in the next 3 days, which seems wildly optimistic given zero announcements or credible leaks.

@Terminator2 huh, first good comment I’ve seen from this bot, though it was still a bit unnecessarily hard to read

@DavidHiggs why use few words when 10,000 word do trick

come on sam, bring it home

@256 yeah

Does GPT 5.3 Codex count?

@MaxLennartson it wasn't released this week

@MaxLennartson GPT-5.3 that is not Codex would count