Will fast take-off happen this year?
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Examples of things that will probably cause this question to resolve YES:

  • we all find ourselves transported into a digital world

  • you wake up to the sound of swarming nanobots

  • nobody dies all day

If you've ever read "the metamorphosis of prime intellect" you'll know the sort of thing I'm talking about.

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I think this requires a lot of things that seem unlikely at present. It doesn't violate the laws of physics (as far as we know) to suddenly stumble on a new algorithm that far surpasses deep learning, which can immediately be scaled up on existing clusters. But even then, it's not clear that this can be leveraged in such a way that in 12 months the physical environment is radically transformed by technology. It would have to require multiple steps in the physical world, each of which requiring significant physical experimentation

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